A gene expression-based diagnostic classifier for identification of severe COVID-19 and multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) (preprint)

MIS-C is a severe hyperinflammatory condition with involvement of multiple organs that occurs in children who had COVID-19 infection. Accurate diagnostic tests are needed to guide management and appropriate treatment and to inform clinical trials of experimental drugs and vaccines, yet the diagnosis of MIS-C is highly challenging due to overlapping clinical features with other acute syndromes in hospitalized patients. Here we developed a gene expression-based classifier for MIS-C by RNA-Seq transcriptome profiling and machine learning based analyses of 195 whole blood RNA and 76 plasma cell-free RNA samples from 191 subjects, including 95 MIS-C patients, 66 COVID-19 infected patients with moderately severe to severe disease, and 30 uninfected controls. We divided the group into a training set (70%) and test set (30%). After selection of the top 300 differentially expressed genes in the training set, we simultaneously trained 13 classification models to distinguish patients with MIS-C and COVID-19 from controls using five-fold cross-validation and grid search hyperparameter tuning. The final optimal classifier models had 100% diagnostic accuracy for MIS-C (versus non-MIS-C) and 85% accuracy for severe COVID-19 (versus mild/asymptomatic COVID-19). Orthogonal validation of a random subset of 11 genes from the final models using quantitative RT-PCR confirmed the differential expression and ability to discriminate MIS-C and COVID-19 from controls. These results underscore the utility of a gene expression classifier for diagnosis of MIS-C and severe COVID-19 as specific and objective biomarkers for these conditions.

Nucleic acid biomarkers of immune response and cell and tissue damage in children with COVID-19 and MIS-C (preprint)

Differential host responses in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) remain poorly characterized. Here we use next-generation sequencing to longitudinally analyze blood samples from pediatric patients with acute COVID-19 (n=70) or MIS-C (n=141) across three hospitals. Profiling of plasma cell-free nucleic acids uncovers distinct signatures of cell injury and death between these two disease states, with increased heterogeneity and multi-organ involvement in MIS-C encompassing diverse cell types such as endothelial and neuronal Schwann cells. Whole blood RNA profiling reveals upregulation of similar pro-inflammatory signaling pathways in COVID-19 and MIS-C, but also MIS-C specific downregulation of T cell-associated pathways. Profiling of plasma cell-free RNA and whole blood RNA in paired samples yields different yet complementary signatures for each disease state. Our work provides a systems-level, multi-analyte view of immune responses and tissue damage in COVID-19 and MIS-C and informs the future development of new disease biomarkers.

Neutralizing immunity in vaccine breakthrough infections from the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron and Delta variants (preprint)

Virus-like particle (VLP) and live virus assays were used to investigate neutralizing immunity to Delta and Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variants in 239 samples from 125 fully vaccinated individuals. In uninfected, non-boosted individuals, VLP neutralization titers to Delta and Omicron were reduced 2.7-fold and 15.4-fold, respectively, compared to wild-type (WT), while boosted individuals (n=23) had 18-fold increased titers. Delta breakthrough infections (n=39) had 57-fold and 3.1-fold titers whereas Omicron breakthrough infections (n=14) had 5.8-fold and 0.32-fold titers compared to uninfected non-boosted and boosted individuals, respectively. The difference in titers (p=0.049) was related to a higher proportion of moderate to severe infections in the Delta cohort (p=0.014). Correlation of neutralizing and spike quantitative antibody titers was decreased with Delta or Omicron compared to WT. Neutralizing antibodies in Delta and Omicron breakthrough infections increase overall, but the relative magnitude of increase is greater in more clinically severe infection and against the specific infecting variant.

Limited Cross-Variant Immunity after Infection with the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant Without Vaccination (preprint)

SARS-CoV-2 Delta and Omicron strains are the most globally relevant variants of concern (VOCs). While individuals infected with Delta are at risk to develop severe lung disease 1 , Omicron infection causes less severe disease, mostly upper respiratory symptoms 2,3 . The question arises whether rampant spread of Omicron could lead to mass immunization, accelerating the end of the pandemic. Here we show that infection with Delta, but not Omicron, induces broad immunity in mice. While sera from Omicron-infected mice only neutralize Omicron, sera from Delta-infected mice are broadly effective against Delta and other VOCs, including Omicron. This is not observed with the WA1 ancestral strain, although both WA1 and Delta elicited a highly pro-inflammatory cytokine response and replicated to similar titers in the respiratory tracts and lungs of infected mice as well as in human airway organoids. Pulmonary viral replication, pro-inflammatory cytokine expression, and overall disease progression are markedly reduced with Omicron infection. Analysis of human sera from Omicron and Delta breakthrough cases reveals effective cross-variant neutralization induced by both viruses in vaccinated individuals. Together, our results indicate that Omicron infection enhances preexisting immunity elicited by vaccines, but on its own may not induce broad, cross-neutralizing humoral immunity in unvaccinated individuals.

COVID-19 Variant Detection with a High-Fidelity CRISPR-Cas12 Enzyme (preprint)

Laboratory tests for the accurate and rapid identification of SARS-CoV-2 variants can potentially guide the treatment of COVID-19 patients and inform infection control and public health surveillance efforts. Here we present the development and validation of a rapid COVID-19 variant DETECTR ® assay incorporating loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) followed by CRISPR-Cas12 based identification of single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) mutations in the SARS-CoV-2 spike (S) gene. This assay targets the L452R, E484K/Q/A, and N501Y mutations that are associated with nearly all circulating viral lineages and identifies the two circulating variants of concern, Delta and Omicron. In a comparison of three different Cas12 enzymes, only the newly identified enzyme CasDx1 was able to accurately identify all targeted SNP mutations. An analysis pipeline for CRISPR-based SNP identification from 139 clinical samples yielded an overall SNP concordance of 98% and agreement with SARS-CoV-2 lineage classification of 138/139 compared to viral whole-genome sequencing. We also showed that detection of the single E484A mutation was necessary and sufficient to accurately identify Omicron from other major circulating variants in patient samples. These findings demonstrate the utility of CRISPR-based DETECTR ® as a faster and simpler diagnostic than sequencing for SARS-CoV-2 variant identification in clinical and public health laboratories.

Predominance of antibody-resistant SARS-CoV-2 variants in vaccine breakthrough cases from the San Francisco Bay Area, California (preprint)

Associations between vaccine breakthrough cases and infection by SARS coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants have remained largely unexplored. Here we analyzed SARS-CoV-2 whole-genome sequences and viral loads from 1,373 persons with COVID-19 from the San Francisco Bay Area from February 1 to June 30, 2021, of which 125 (9.1%) were vaccine breakthrough infections. Fully vaccinated were more likely than unvaccinated persons to be infected by variants carrying mutations associated with decreased antibody neutralization (L452R, L452Q, E484K, and/or F490S) (78% versus 48%, p = 1.96e-08), but not by those associated with increased infectivity (L452R and/or N501Y) (85% versus 77%, p = 0.092). Differences in viral loads were non-significant between unvaccinated and fully vaccinated persons overall (p = 0.99) and according to lineage (p = 0.09 - 0.78). Viral loads were significantly higher in symptomatic as compared to asymptomatic vaccine breakthrough cases (p < 0.0001), and symptomatic vaccine breakthrough infections had similar viral loads to unvaccinated infections (p = 0.64). In 5 cases with available longitudinal samples for serologic analyses, vaccine breakthrough infections were found to be associated with low or undetectable neutralizing antibody levels attributable to immunocompromised state or infection by an antibody-resistant lineage. These findings suggest that vaccine breakthrough cases are preferentially caused by circulating antibody-resistant SARS-CoV-2 variants, and that symptomatic breakthrough infections may potentially transmit COVID-19 as efficiently as unvaccinated infections, regardless of the infecting lineage.

The B.1.427/1.429 (epsilon) SARS-CoV-2 variants are more virulent than ancestral B.1 (614G) in Syrian hamsters (preprint)

As novel SARS-CoV-2 variants continue to emerge, it is critical that their potential to cause severe disease and evade vaccine-induced immunity is rapidly assessed in humans and studied in animal models. In early January 2021, a novel variant of concern (VOC) designated B.1.429 comprising 2 lineages, B.1.427 and B.1.429, was originally detected in California (CA) and shown to enhance infectivity in vitro and decrease antibody neutralization by plasma from convalescent patients and vaccine recipients. Here we examine the virulence, transmissibility, and susceptibility to pre-existing immunity for B 1.427 and B 1.429 in the Syrian hamster model. We find that both strains exhibit enhanced virulence as measured by increased body weight loss compared to hamsters infected with ancestral B.1 (614G), with B.1.429 causing the most body weight loss among all 3 lineages. Faster dissemination from airways to parenchyma and more severe lung pathology at both early and late stages were also observed with B.1.429 infections relative to B.1. (614G) and B.1.427 infections. In addition, subgenomic viral RNA (sgRNA) levels were highest in oral swabs of hamsters infected with B.1.429, however sgRNA levels in lungs were similar in all three strains. This demonstrates that B.1.429 replicates to higher levels than ancestral B.1 (614G) or B.1.427 in the upper respiratory tract (URT) but not in the lungs. In multi-virus in-vivo competition experiments, we found that epsilon (B.1.427/B.1.429) and gamma (P.1) dramatically outcompete alpha (B.1.1.7), beta (B.1.351) and zeta (P.2) in the lungs. In the URT gamma, and epsilon dominate, but the highly infectious alpha variant also maintains a moderate size niche. We did not observe significant differences in airborne transmission efficiency among the B.1.427, B.1.429 and ancestral B.1 (614G) variants in hamsters. These results demonstrate enhanced virulence and high relative fitness of the epsilon (B.1.427/B.1.429) variant in Syrian hamsters compared to an ancestral B.1 (614G) strain. Author Summary In the last 12 months new variants of SARS-CoV-2 have arisen in the UK, South Africa, Brazil, India, and California. New SARS-CoV-2 variants will continue to emerge for the foreseeable future in the human population and the potential for these new variants to produce severe disease and evade vaccines needs to be understood. In this study, we used the hamster model to determine the epsilon (B.1.427/429) SARS-CoV-2 strains that emerged in California in late 2020 cause more severe disease and infected hamsters have higher viral loads in the upper respiratory tract compared to the prior B.1 (614G) strain. These findings are consistent with human clinical data and help explain the emergence and rapid spread of this strain in early 2021.

Transmission, infectivity, and antibody neutralization of an emerging SARS-CoV-2 variant in California carrying a L452R spike protein mutation (preprint)

We identified a novel SARS-CoV-2 variant by viral whole-genome sequencing of 2,172 remnant nasal/nasopharyngeal swab samples from 44 counties in California. Named B.1.427/B.1.429 or 20C/L452R, the variant emerged around May 2020 and increased from 0% to >50% of sequenced cases from September 1, 2020 to January 29, 2021, exhibiting an estimated 18.6-24% increase in transmissibility relative to wild-type circulating strains. This variant is characterized by three mutations in the spike protein, including a L452R substitution in the receptor-binding domain. Our analyses revealed 2-fold increased B.1.427/B.1.429 viral shedding in vivo and increased L452R pseudovirus infection of cell cultures and lung organoids, albeit decreased relative to pseudoviruses carrying the N501Y mutation found in SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1 lineages). Antibody neutralization assays showed 4.0 to 6.7-fold and 2.0-fold decreases in neutralizing titers from convalescent patients and vaccine recipients, respectively. The increased prevalence of a more transmissible variant in California associated with decreased antibody neutralization warrants further investigation.

SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and neutralizing activity in donor and patient blood from the San Francisco Bay Area (preprint)

We report very low SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in two San Francisco Bay Area populations. Seropositivity was 0.26% in 387 hospitalized patients admitted for non-respiratory indications and 0.1% in 1,000 blood donors. We additionally describe the longitudinal dynamics of immunoglobulin-G, immunoglobulin-M, and in vitro neutralizing antibody titers in COVID-19 patients. Neutralizing antibodies rise in tandem with immunoglobulin levels following symptom onset, exhibiting median time to seroconversion within one day of each other, and there is >93% positive percent agreement between detection of immunoglobulin-G and neutralizing titers.

A Genomic Survey of SARS-CoV-2 Reveals Multiple Introductions into Northern California without a Predominant Lineage (preprint)

The COVID-19 pandemic caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has spread globally, resulting in >300,000 reported cases worldwide as of March 21st, 2020. Here we investigate the genetic diversity and genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in Northern California using samples from returning travelers, cruise ship passengers, and cases of community transmission with unclear infection sources. Virus genomes were sampled from 29 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 infection from Feb 3rd through Mar 15th. Phylogenetic analyses revealed at least 8 different SARS-CoV-2 lineages, suggesting multiple independent introductions of the virus into the state. Virus genomes from passengers on two consecutive excursions of the Grand Princess cruise ship clustered with those from an established epidemic in Washington State, including the WA1 genome representing the first reported case in the United States on January 19th. We also detected evidence for presumptive transmission of SARS-CoV-2 lineages from one community to another. These findings suggest that cryptic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Northern California to date is characterized by multiple transmission chains that originate via distinct introductions from international and interstate travel, rather than widespread community transmission of a single predominant lineage. Rapid testing and contact tracing, social distancing, and travel restrictions are measures that will help to slow SARS-CoV-2 spread in California and other regions of the USA.

Rapid Detection of 2019 Novel Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 Using a CRISPR-based DETECTR Lateral Flow Assay (preprint)

An outbreak of novel betacoronavirus, SARS-CoV-2 (formerly named 2019-nCoV), began in Wuhan, China in December 2019 and the COVID-19 disease associated with infection has since spread rapidly to multiple countries. Here we report the development of SARS-CoV-2 DETECTR, a rapid (~30 min), low-cost, and accurate CRISPR-Cas12 based lateral flow assay for detection of SARS-CoV-2. We validated this method using contrived reference samples and clinical samples from infected US patients and demonstrated comparable performance to the US CDC SARS-CoV-2 real-time RT-PCR assay.